Iraq

McKellin Doctrine Part I - Flawed Diplomacy

For me the issue at hand is not supporting the war or
not. It is the "flawed diplomacy" of the Bush
administration which has alienated many of our close
friends and actually fractured NATO down the middle,
especially the all important US and German
relationship.

Bush's handlers got over-confident with the ease we
had in Afghanistan and quickly (although I don't think
over-arrogantly at the time, maybe a little) decided
to move on Saddam. They deserve poor marks for Project
Management and Marketing.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT - Internationally Bush Admin did
not line up friends and support before over-committing
troups and painting us into a corner. (Plus France
just totally screwed us, the US will make them pay
soon)

MARKETING - We are doing the world a favor by getting
rid of Saddam. If we are doing something so good
shouldn't the world show a little more appreciation?
We should have been better able to explain the upside
to the world. Tony Blair has been by far the most
eloquent.

THE ATTACK
I vote for attack at this point as we are committed
and backing now out would bring a sad end game I could
write paragraphs about. Hopefully it will be easy as
the boys on the front line will be American boys. This
war is potentially much more dangerous than the last
2. It ranks as Most Dangerous in many catagories in
Sun Tzu's the Art of War. For ex:

Sieges - Although Baghdad won't we so hard to take, it
will be urban warfare with weapons of mass destruction
around a populated metro area. Sun writes - "If troops
lay siege to a walled city, their strength will be
exhausted" and "Laying siege to a city is only done
when other options are not available".

Saddam has his back to the wall which is another
dangerous scenario "If you surround the enemy, leave
an outlet; do not press an enemy that is cornered."
Especially true for a psycho on his final suicide
mission against a hated enemy. I am sure he has
planned some surprises for our troops, the question is
if he has the power to have his plans carried out.

Lastly he has home court advantage and 10 years to
prepare. According to Dick Morris in the NY Post on
March 6 for the last 4 years Saddam was bringing in
$40,000,000 a day in oil revenue. He hasn't been
spending it on baby formula.

I live in Tokyo and was in the UK and Germany last
week. The war is being played out very differently
outside the US, even in the UK and the BBC. The US
looks bad as does NASDAQ.

If we could go back a year I am sure we would all
choose that the Bush Admin would have left well enough
alone until we could build support. Now we are painted
into a corner where the best case scenario a quick war
with low pain levels and the unmasking of Saddam as a
monster. Remember the war is only Phase 1. We must
rebuild a country that has neighbors like Iran and
Syria after it is over. Saddam might trash the place
like he did in Kuwait.

Even with the best case scenario, the ill will we have
exacerbated from Islamic fanatics to our close
friends will affect us for a long time.

N KOREA
We should take our boys out of S Korea as they serve
no purpose now and are not feeling wanted. We can keep
the peace and kick N Korea's dilapidated army's butt
from bases in Japan. We should be on alert to attack
at any minute in response to altercations and the
Japanese Defence Force should play a key role. The
Japanese gov't hawkish views on Iraq show just how
tight the US-Japan has been getting recently. Japan
has placed it's long term security plans with the US
which is great for both sides and stability in N Asia.

So lets hope it is a quick war, the fights with our
friends are quickly forgotten and the world economic
situation stabilizes soon.

Peace

Darren

	Economist Magazine - Late Sept 2001
McKellin Doctrine Part I - Flawed Diplomacy For me the issue at hand is not supporting the war or not. It is the "flawed diplomacy" of the Bush administration which has alienated many of our close friends and actually fractured NATO down the middle, especially the all important US and German relationship. Bush's handlers got over-confident with the ease we had in Afghanistan and quickly (although I don't think over-arrogantly at the time, maybe a little) decided to move on Saddam. They deserve poor marks for Project Management and Marketing. PROJECT MANAGEMENT - Internationally Bush Admin did not line up friends and support before over-committing troups and painting us into a corner. (Plus France just totally screwed us, the US will make them pay soon) MARKETING - We are doing the world a favor by getting rid of Saddam. If we are doing something so good shouldn't the world show a little more appreciation? We should have been better able to explain the upside to the world. Tony Blair has been by far the most eloquent. THE ATTACK I vote for attack at this point as we are committed and backing now out would bring a sad end game I could write paragraphs about. Hopefully it will be easy as the boys on the front line will be American boys. This war is potentially much more dangerous than the last 2. It ranks as Most Dangerous in many catagories in Sun Tzu's the Art of War. For ex: Sieges - Although Baghdad won't we so hard to take, it will be urban warfare with weapons of mass destruction around a populated metro area. Sun writes - "If troops lay siege to a walled city, their strength will be exhausted" and "Laying siege to a city is only done when other options are not available". Saddam has his back to the wall which is another dangerous scenario "If you surround the enemy, leave an outlet; do not press an enemy that is cornered." Especially true for a psycho on his final suicide mission against a hated enemy. I am sure he has planned some surprises for our troops, the question is if he has the power to have his plans carried out. Lastly he has home court advantage and 10 years to prepare. According to Dick Morris in the NY Post on March 6 for the last 4 years Saddam was bringing in $40,000,000 a day in oil revenue. He hasn't been spending it on baby formula. I live in Tokyo and was in the UK and Germany last week. The war is being played out very differently outside the US, even in the UK and the BBC. The US looks bad as does NASDAQ. If we could go back a year I am sure we would all choose that the Bush Admin would have left well enough alone until we could build support. Now we are painted into a corner where the best case scenario a quick war with low pain levels and the unmasking of Saddam as a monster. Remember the war is only Phase 1. We must rebuild a country that has neighbors like Iran and Syria after it is over. Saddam might trash the place like he did in Kuwait. Even with the best case scenario, the ill will we have exacerbated from Islamic fanatics to our close friends will affect us for a long time. N KOREA We should take our boys out of S Korea as they serve no purpose now and are not feeling wanted. We can keep the peace and kick N Korea's dilapidated army's butt from bases in Japan. We should be on alert to attack at any minute in response to altercations and the Japanese Defence Force should play a key role. The Japanese gov't hawkish views on Iraq show just how tight the US-Japan has been getting recently. Japan has placed it's long term security plans with the US which is great for both sides and stability in N Asia. So lets hope it is a quick war, the fights with our friends are quickly forgotten and the world economic situation stabilizes soon. Peace Darren